Hull moving average
TrendIntermediate
The Hull moving average, from Alan Hull, is a weighted average built to cut lag without becoming a raw price line. It combines a fast weighted average and a slow one, then smooths the result with the square root of the length. Traders use the slope, or a cross of price through the Hull line, as a trend filter.
Not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Backtests and historical studies are not guarantees, and a rule that worked in one sample can fail in the next. Trading can lose money. Links are for education, not endorsements. Do your own research.
- Rules
- A common length is 16 or 20 on daily bars. One published use is to hold a long while the Hull average is rising and to stand aside or short when it turns down. A slower filter, such as a higher-timeframe Hull or an ADX gate, keeps a single down-tick from flipping the position. Stops still belong on price, not on the average alone.
- Where AI fits
- AI can implement the weighted-average steps exactly and compare Hull turns with a simple moving-average cross on the same costs. The useful question is whether the reduced lag survives commissions, not which length looks smoothest. Any length search needs a holdout period.
- Markets
- Stock indexes, liquid single stocks, and FX majors.
- Timeframes
- Daily for swing trades. Intraday lengths need their own cost test.
- Risks
- Less lag means more turns. A Hull average will still whip in a range, sometimes more often than a slow simple average. Optimizing the length on one ticker is a common way to fool yourself.